![]() ![]() ![]() Now, here comes my befuddlement: The EV of either a Place 6 or 8 before a 7-out is: / 12 = -1.042% of each dollar wagered. So the probability of EITHER a Place 6 or a Place 8 hitting before a 7-out is 62.5% making the probability of a 7-out before either place bet hits is 1 – 62.5%, or 37.5%. Now to analyze betting on both Place 6 and Place 8: Probability of EITHER a Place 6 or Place 8 hitting before a 7-out: p = (5/36) + (5/36) = 10/36: q = 6/36 thus p / (p+q) = (10/36) / = 0.625. ![]() Close enough, so the gambling statistics are copacetic. So the probability of a place 6 happening before a 7-out is 45.45% of the time thereby making the probability of a 7-out happening before a Place 6 occurs is 1 – 45.45% = 54.55%Īnd the EV of a Place 6 before a 7-out is: / 6 = -1.515% of each dollar wagered.Ĭonfirming this w/ WinCraps (1M rolls) results in -1.50% of each dollar wagered. The equation for probability of p happening before q is: p / (p+q). ![]()
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